Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,232$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(370 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,164.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,164.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $96$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(11 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.4}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $169$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,799$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,867.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(33,867.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,743$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(307 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,846.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,846.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,085$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,267$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,965.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,965.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $233$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(45.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225.9}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(225.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,002$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,399$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(656 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,574.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(6,574.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $301$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(30.8 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{304.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(304.1\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,098$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,242$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,169.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(11,169.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $551$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(94 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{544.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(544.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,077$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,802$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(488 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.0}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.0\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(3.16 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.2}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 22.6)}}\) (asimptote \(10.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $55,791$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(7.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,670.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(54,670.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,108$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,850.4}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,850.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,996$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $250,138$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259,269.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(259,269.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,422$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(3.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,733.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 40.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,733.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $213,617$ on 2020-05-19
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $226,699$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{221,223.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(221,223.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,169$ on 2020-05-19
Best fit exponential: \(4.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,194.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(31,194.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,129$ on 2020-05-19
